The Dream run for telecom industry isn't over

Lot of analyst have written off the telecom companies for the recent tariff war based on per second billing which was first started off by Tata Docomo. This is real good news for the customer’s as mobile bills will be expected to reduce whereas for these telecom companies their revenues will come down.

No doubt that the ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) and RPM (Revenue Per Minute)have fallen sharply and has taken a shape of a kinked curve .This story is same like the detergent powder story during late 90’s when nirma slashed prices by more than 60% and HUL,P&G and others soon followed suit. There was a whole change of business outlook and for the FMCG co’s this detergent powder became a major contribution of revenue post price cuts as lot of customers were added in and detergent became a household name in India which wasn’t the case earlier.

The same will be for telecom co’s. We are still the second fastest growing country in terms of mobile connection after china with a CAGR of 12% and the November sales figure of mobile connection makes u think if these telecom co’s would really suffer. Also these days the dual Sim card mobile sales is really picking up so lot of users can buy 2 sim card which earlier wasn’t the case.

The 3G auction will also redefine the way the mobile will be used by consumers. With BSNL,all set to launch its 3G – Wimax soon the real new mobile era would start again. Gemini Communication recent won the 1000 Crore for the Wimax order at BSNL.
Others like Airtel, Uninor, Vodafone, Idea etc will be bidding for the 60,000 crore spectrum for getting their share of the 3G mobile market.

Personally, for Gemini Communication Ltd - the company which I am working for we have maintained a 70% plus growth for the next 2 years to come and 3G is the major contributor for our revenue push.Also,we have started bidding for projects outside India and the growth will head upwards for years to come.